America's Next Top Speaker 2 - Electric Boogaloo
At the Races in the House (again)
Do you know the definition of insanity? Nominating the same Party leaders again and again and expecting them to pass a floor vote every time.
This time last week I wrote an article suggesting that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) was the most likely next Speaker of the House, not because of his moderate appeal and charisma, but rather because Steve Scalise could never survive a floor vote thanks to obstructionists in his party’s right wing. Some of this is true. To my surprise, Scalise actually won the nomination for Speaker from his party’s conference due to an immense whip operation and poaching some of Rep. Jordan’s soft supporters. So why isn’t he Speaker yet? Two whole days after reaching the dizzying heights of “speaker-designate,” Scalise withdrew from the race after it emerged that up to twenty members of his own caucus would vote against the Louisianan in a floor vote. For context he could afford to lose, at most, four Republicans assuming that all Democrats were present.
Next on the chopping block is Jim Jordan. A starlet of the GOP’s right flank and co-chair of the House Freedom Caucus he would surely be able to avoid the same pitfalls that Jordan, and McCarthy before him succumbed to? Unfortunately for the controversial Congressman, who has been referred to as a “legislative terrorist,” he found out that what goes around is sure to come around, and, initially in a secret ballot after he won the GOP’s nomination for Speaker against Rep. Austin Scott (R-GA), 52 Republicans said that they have no interest in supporting Jordan on the House floor. Their reasons for this action aren’t uniform, with some like Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) expressing his frustration with Jordan due to his association with the previous successful coups against former Speaker McCarthy (R-CA) and Steve Scalise, stating that he doesn’t wish to “reward bad behaviour.” But their reasoning doesn’t matter, what matters is getting to 213 votes on the floor, a task which, for now, would require Jordan and his team to win over twenty members of his own caucus, many of whom have personal gripes and clashes with the controversial Ohioan. The efforts from the Ohioan and his team are also seemingly in vain and, at the time of writing, Jim Jordan has already lost the first ballot, and he lost by the letter E on the roll call.
This leaves the House in limbo, with neither of the former front runners likely to end up as Speaker and a secret, third option needing to reveal itself. This article will suggest four potential Speakers, and try to get it right this time. In no particular order, these are Rep. Don Bacon, Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK), Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC).
Candidate Carrall
I’ve chosen these four candidates for a litany of reasons based on the handful of scenarios that I can see currently revealing themselves as the Speaker process draws out. At the time of writing, there is still a slim chance that Rep. Jordan succeeds in his promotion to Speaker, but the chances aren’t high enough for me to include him in this list - twenty votes against you on the first ballot is hard to overcome (just ask Kevin McCarthy).
This article will assume that both Jordan and Scalise are out of the running, even while the former could still attempt to run again and resurrect the ghost of the January Speaker election. The four candidates will be ranked below in order of likeliness to become the next Speaker. Without further ado here are the four most likely future Speakers of the House of Representatives.
Rep. Kevin Hern
As a prospective feature of the initial Speaker ballot a week ago, it is my opinion that Rep. Hern is the next most likely Speaker when all is said and done with Jordan and Scalise. After Scalise won the Speaker’s nomination, Hern began pivoting himself towards the Louisianan’s old position as Majority Leader, a position which his fellow southerner will now likely reclaim due to not being elected as Speaker. This leaves Kevin Hern in limbo. He clearly has aspirations for House Leadership, but no obvious way to do so - aside from as Speaker.
Hern’s strength comes from his position as head of the Republican Study Committee. A group which has over 150 members ranging from some of the most moderate members of the GOP conference to some of the furthest right. There is an associated level of clout with being President of the RSC, with notable former Presidents of the Committee being former VP Mike Pence, and Reps Scalise and Jordan. If you yearn for higher office or House Leadership, the Study Committee is the place to be. He also has clout with the Gang of Eight who deposed Speaker McCarthy, exemplified by his nominations for speaker by Reps. Boebert (R-CO) and Good (R-VA) during January’s Speaker fiasco.
Hern’s personal life is also not one which is fraught with controversy. He made his fortune through McDonald’s franchises and doesn’t have questionable connections with racist organisations like Scalise does with the KKK and David Duke. In many ways the so-called “McCongressman” is everything Republicans would tend to be able to get in line behind. A self made businessman from the South who then decided to dedicate himself to public service.
The Oklahoman’s political positions are also unlikely to be give pause to any members either closer to the centre, i.e. those who have caused trouble for Jordan or those on the right, i.e. those who brought McCarthy and Scalise down. He also doesn’t have a significant national profile for vulnerable members of the House to be tied to come 2024. It is likely Jim Jordan’s controversial profile which caused some Republicans in Congress, like Rep. Lawler (R-NY) from districts won by Pres. Biden in 2020 to distance themselves from him. A good section of Democratic voters know who Jordan is, and they see him as aiding the January 6th insurrection, and just generally being a far right actor, while those like Lawler and other New York Republicans cannot afford being tied to that ship if they want to have a shot at winning re-election in 2024.
As such, it is my opinion that Kevin Hern will be the next Speaker of the House, but I only believe that he has around a ~ fifty percent chance of doing so, due to the sheer level of chaos in the GOP caucus. It would be unwise to unequivocally pin myself to a candidate, but if I were to hedge my bets it would be that we get two Speaker Kevin’s in one year.
Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry
If Pat McHenry becomes the permanent Speaker it will almost certainly not be his choice, but will be the choice of a conference with nowhere left to turn. McHenry has been prompted several times about whether or not he wishes to run for Speaker and his answers have either been “no” or “no comment,” - hardly what you’d expect from the man who is technically the current Speaker of the House. Despite this, I still think he’s one of the most likely people to become the next, permanent Speaker of the House.
The reason for this is that Democrats have started to warm to him, potentially not in high enough numbers to elect him immediately as Speaker, but if January repeats itself and the process on the House floor is drawn out and arduous again then enough Republicans may break and try to cut a deal to install McHenry on a permanent basis. The Democratic leaders of the Problem Solvers Caucus have proposed a temporary expansion of McHenry’s powers to help push through funding for America’s allies and to help continue discussions which will help the US avoid another Government shutdown or debt default. Minority Leader Jeffries has also come around to the idea of supporting McHenry, at least on a temporary basis, until the conservative side of the House is able to get its affairs in order - a tall ask given current developments. This should be taken with a grain of salt however, as McHenry himself has stated that he would rather not see his powers expanded, supporting the notion that he wants to be anywhere else besides behind the Speaker’s gavel.
Speaker McHenry is somewhat of a pipe dream, but it is more realistic than perhaps he or the rest of the GOP caucus realise. In a world where Jordan keeps failing to garner 217 votes on the floor, it doesn’t seem unreasonable that spirits will begin to break and, at very least, a deal will be passed to empower McHenry as Speaker so that the country can run again. Whether or not this could snowball into a permanent speakership is yet to be seen, but it is a far more likely suggestion than many pundits would have you believe.
Rep. Don Bacon
In last week’s article I mentioned Rep. Bacon as a hail Mary candidate for the speakership. A man who could rise to the occasion from the centre of the House and ascend as the bipartisan choice for Speaker. He is a stickler for the rules, and believes that Jordan and his most ardent supporters broke protocol when they necked McCarthy. Could he be next up to the gavel?
I think it’s fair to say that bipartisanship is largely dead in America. A relic of a bygone era when politics was friendlier and the party’s closer together than they are now, but Speaker Bacon could be a last hurrah for those who still believe that both sides of the aisle can unite behind something. Last week I suggested that for Bacon to become Speaker, it would require Steve Scalise to win the GOP nomination (true) and then to falter on the House floor (he didn’t make it that far). So I wasn’t entirely correct there, but the sentiment still exists.
It is my belief that, in a drawn out contest for Speaker, the spirits of some centrist Republicans will break - especially when the prospect of Speaker Jordan is bearing down on them and their future careers. While I asserted previously that this may manifest in Speaker McHenry, I think it’s just as likely that this energy is directed towards a movement to draft Don Bacon as Speaker of the House. His advantage over some of his potential competitors is the likelihood that some Democrats could, potentially, crossover to support him. Unlike some in the House who claim to be “moderate,” Bacon actually has some votes to prove it. He has one of the most bipartisan records in the House, and is closely aligned with the Problem Solvers Caucus, a bipartisan group which aims to wade through the harsh political lines drawn in the House and find solutions which satisfy both sides.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle for Bacon will be pacifying his fellow Republicans, some of whom he has accused of preferring to be in the minority. Rep. Scalise had strong coattails with the right flank, yet at least twenty of them were willing to shoot him down for the second time, although this time it would be on the House floor rather than the baseball field. It wouldn’t be surprising to me if fifty or more GOP representatives voted against Bacon if he ran for Speaker, and I’m not confident in saying that he would be able to garner that much crossover support without concessions to Democrats which would be unconscionable for the Republican conference.
Therefore, I think that Speaker Bacon is certainly within the realm of possibility, but not to a huge extent. It would be a stunning display of bipartisanship and would require a herculean effort from the middle of the House, but if it happens I want everyone and their mother to quote me on it.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries
The final candidate I’d consider with a shot at becoming Speaker is Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, and his Speakership would arise in a similar situation to the previous candidates mentioned - Republican fatigue.
If one thing has been made clear from January and October’s Speaker debacles it is that Democrats are officially the party of order, and they truly have their ducks in a row. Not a single Democrat has voted for anyone bar Hakeem Jeffries on the House floor, including the Democrats Freedom Caucus equivalent in the form of the progressive Squad. Some members such as Rep. Connolly (D-VA) have even taken it upon themselves to yell the minority leader’s surname when voting for him, and providing a raucous applause when the Democrat has been nominated in ballots past.
Now, no Republican will ever go on record in support of Hakeem Jeffries, unless they truly hate their job to the degree that some, such as Rep. Spartz (R-IN) do. Instead of garnering crossover support, Jeffries would have to rely on eight or so Republicans not voting - best illustrated with this drawing from Andrew Solender of Axios.
But what could cause this to happen? The most likely scenario for so many Republican defections to occur would be if those who oppose Jim Jordan simply give up with concessions to the party’s right flank and decide that the Freedom Caucus can’t have their cake and eat it by voting present and allowing Democrats to slip one past them.
I’m unmoved by the odds that this happens, purely on the basis that those who voted present would have difficulty convincing Republican primary voters to support them if they are seen as enabling Democrats to control a Republican led chamber. Naturally, opponents of Jordan would attempt to pin the reality of Speaker Jeffries on the right wing, blaming them for disrupting the House process and forcing their hand to support Jeffries so that the House could continue with its work.
Naturally, the odds of this are low but we are currently in the timeline where seemingly anything could happen, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable ruling this out.
A Lot to Do About Nothing
The United State Congress is a cruel mistress, and it is perhaps at it’s cruellest now. Obstructionist Republicans are making life a living hell for the rest of the Party, and it is the American public that get to reap the bulk of the consequences.
My goal with this article has been to scout the field of potential candidates for Speaker and look at a handful of scenarios which might occur. Hern is, in my opinion, the most likely candidate but that doesn’t give him much more than a 50% chance and I also wouldn’t be surprised if the next Speaker wasn’t mentioned in this article at all.
If you’ve made it to the end, let me know what you think in the comments below and who you think the next most likely Speaker will be!
As always, thank you for reading and consider sharing this with a friend!
And the best choice in my mind is Hakeem Jeffries...we don't need any more ultra-conservative people in leadership positions.
I laughed while reading this. Your sense of humor was a welcome surprise. And that photo! 😂😂😂 I subscribed and am sending this to one of my fellow-political-obsessed-friends who will also appreciate your approach.
I hope the next speaker is the law and order dude or Jeffries!