New Jersey 2024 - Corruption Sometimes Pays
At the Races in The Garden State's Next Open Primary
I tend to put a joke at the start of these articles, but with a situation this bizarre I don’t think any quip I can come up with would add to the story, so I’ll just cut to the chase instead.
New Jersey doesn’t get the best wrap for organised crime, corruption etc and Sen. Menendez (D-NJ) is doing his darndest to make it worse. The Senior Senator has been indicted twice now, first in 2017 and now with three counts of bribery against him that were unsealed earlier this week. Menendez was able to weather his 2017 charge, as he was acquitted by a jury and his case resulted in a mistrial. There was very little political weight thrown behind removing him from office as the charges were, in the greater scheme of things, fairly minor and the Senator was a largely unknown force outside of his own state.
It isn’t clear that things will be the same now.
While he was previously charged with accepting bad campaign bribes from a friend in 2017, this year’s charge is far more serious and suggests that he sold information to Egypt in exchange for cash, gold bars and likely more. The fallout from his fellow senators has also been harsh, with Sen. Fetterman (D-PA) leading the charge, constantly ribbing the New Jerseyan on the site formerly known as Twitter and in interviews. This has included offering to return the $5,000 Menendez donated to his 2022 campaign in dollar bills stuffed inside blank envelopes. Alongside this, over half of the Democratic caucus in the Senate have called on Menendez to resign, this group includes all of the “vulnerable” Democrats running for re-election in 2024 in swing/red states. But for now, the United State’s sixth ever Latino Senator is holding firm, believing that his name will be cleared in due time and stating that, as of writing this article, he has no intentions to resign.
This article will delve less into Menendez’s corruption, but more so into the political implications to suggest that, even if his name is cleared, Menendez has no viable path to another term in the Senate. I will look at the field of declared and prospective candidates and suggest who I believe will succeed the embattled Senator in the Garden State.
Menendez’s Criminal Past and Present
While the New Jersey Senator’s criminal past is of importance, it pales in comparison to his criminal present, outlined in a three count indictment accusing him of various acts of bribery with Egyptian officials, including over military information. His implication in these dealings is of utmost concern due to his position as the Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee (a position he has now resigned), meaning that he was privy to some of the most confidential and highly classified dealings of the United States overseas. These indiscretions are, naturally, denied by the Senator and his wife - who is also implicated in this affair. This is in spite of an almost comical amount of evidence from jackets filled with cash in unmarked envelopes, and Google searches of “how much is 1kg of gold worth.” When compared with the 2017 indictment, this paint a much darker image of the Senator.
In 2017, Menendez was indicted on bribery related to campaign finance due to questionable business relations with a friend of his. A serious offence but it wasn’t a career ender, exemplified by the fact he was able to win re-election just one year later, and that he was acquitted by a jury in a 10-2 vote. However, this did show glaring issues for Menendez’s political future as he was able to win the Democratic primary with just 62% of the vote, as a no-name candidate who spent precisely $0 on her campaign took the other 38% - an absolutely obscene performance. This was also in spite of New Jersey’s questionable primary ballot system, where candidates who are endorsed on the “County line” are given the prime position on each county’s ballot. Menendez had the county line in all of New Jersey’s twenty-one counties, yet he was able to still lose six (!) of them. This was also when he was endorsed by Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) and the rest of New Jersey’s head Democratic leaders.
Coming back to the present day and the situation couldn’t be more dire for Menendez. The same political machine that he was able to weaponise in 2018 and beyond to secure the Democratic nomination is no longer in his favour, with Gov. Murphy and the Democratic leadership in New Jersey’s State House and Senate all coming to call for his resignation. It is likely true that the incumbent Senator has some sort of grip on the Democrats in some counties however, as New Jersey is one of the last remaining states with strong machine politics, and there will certainly be County Leaders who feel that they owe their endorsement to Menendez, despite his illicit dealings with a foreign nation. I’m leaving this in to cover my back in the unlikeliest of cases that the Senator is able to pull off the comeback of the century and win his primary and then a stiff general election against the eventual Republican nominee.
Democratic Challengers
Unlike in 2018, Menendez will be unable to clear the field of serious contenders, as a number of New Jersey Democrats have either thrown their hat in the ring or have hinted towards a run even if Menendez doesn’t resign. Below I will run through all the probable and declared candidates ranked in order of likeliness to win, but will quickly look at the one poll done so far of the race.
Menendez’ Math Problem
Only one poll has been conducted so far assessing the fallout of Menendez’s latest scandal, and it makes for heavy reading for the Senator and his supporters. In a state which has a heavy Democratic lean, Menendez is recording approval ratings of… 8%, against a 74% disapproval rate, and in a matchup between Menendez and a Republican candidate, he is trailing by 22%, polling just 20% of the vote, with “Someone Else” coming in at 25%. Utterly abysmal numbers. In this same poll, Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) has a net positive approval of 9%, and leads a generic Republican candidate by twelve points. What this poll reflects is how utterly hopeless it is for Menendez to win this primary, and he would be lucky to even break 10% should he seriously run again.
The Candidates
Rep. Andy Kim (NJ-03)
The first, major, declared candidate against the embattled Senator is Democratic Congressman Andy Kim. At only 41 years old, he is one of the youngest members of the House and would be one of the youngest Senators should he go on to win election in November 2024. Kim entered national politics in 2018, when he won a seat in Congress that supported former President Trump by seven points just two years earlier, and he has since won this seat twice more while other Democrats have failed to carry it. He also won re-election in 2020 by eight points while Trump carried it in his failed re-election bid.
Kim was the first of New Jersey’s Congressional delegation to call for the incumbent to resign, and has been hinting towards a run for a long time given his substantial warchest and potential spending advantage over most of his other opponents. Kim raised nearly half a million dollars in the second quarter of 2023 despite not having a competitive Congressional election on his hands for the foreseeable future, since redistricting made his seat much more favourable to the Democrats than it once was. Kim also has a high profile in his state, with polling suggesting that nearly 70% of the state know who he is, a figure much higher than most of the other candidates in this list, and far above any of the members of Congress in consideration.
As of writing, Kim is the most likely candidate to succeed Menendez in the United States Senate, even if the incumbent attempts to rally for a fourth term. He has strong name recognition in the Garden State, a strong grip on North Jersey in particular, and is already reeling in endorsements from advocacy groups across the state. Kim is a formidable challenger for any who dare to run in this primary.
First Lady Tammy Murphy
Wife of incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, co-owner of Gotham FC (a women’s football team) and now Junior Senator from New Jersey?
Tammy Murphy has been long active in politics, starting out life as a Republican before re-registering as a Democrat in the early 2000s, and being put in charge handling finances for the DNC in 2006. She has also been influential in environmental politics, spearheading the Environmental Council in her home state, and working with Al Gore on issues of climate. Her workload has only increased since her husband’s election to the Governor’s mansion, as she has taken up her own office and working on policy issues such as the environmental ones mentioned previously. But is this enough to make her a serious candidate for Senate?
As of writing, several sources are stating that she is seriously considering a run, calling in various favours across the state and bolstering herself for a potential campaign announcement after New Jersey’s Legislative Elections in November.
In her potential campaign’s favour, is her position in the state, where she has made few enemies, hasn’t run for office so has avoided any negative attention, and the fact that she seems to actually give back to and care about her state. The other big notch in Murphy’s belt is the fact that she will likely be the only high profile woman in the race. With New Jersey’s Congressional delegation being male dominated, and the only other serious female candidate (Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ-11)) opting to bide her time and run for Governor in 2025. Murphy has a clear path to victory as the only woman in the race, her connections and her husband currently occupying the Governor’s mansion. All of these have to solidify her chance of clinching the nomination.
However, there is one potential sword hanging over against her. Should Menendez resign instead of running for re-election, Gov. Murphy will choose his replacement and it is unlikely that he would appoint his wife to this role due to the clear nepotism that would be displayed. This is still speculation for now though as the embattled Senator is still pledging not to resign as of writing and that would mitigate this pitfall. Should Menendez cede to the mounting pressure, there is still one out available as Murphy could choose to go the route of Gov. Newsom (D-CA) and appoint a caretaker to the Senate to avoid interfering with the primary, which would crack the race wide open yet again.
All in all First Lady Murphy does have a very strong shot at the nomination, but she will be up against stiff competition in (at least) Rep. Kim and potentially a handful of other candidates.
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (NJ-05)
Former Pres. Clinton staffer, and Beltway insider Josh Gottheimer is another potential candidate to run for Democratic nomination, but how seriously should he be taken?
The biggest issue for Gottheimer is his voting record, which places him as the most conservative Democrat in the House, and in 2021 he actually voted to the right of 32 House Republicans. He is also an ardent supporter of Israel, notably having recently requested that Stanford remove a book critical of Israeli foreign policy from its library. This bipartisan streak may be a useful tool in general elections, as he represents an incredibly competitive district, but weakens his shot at winning the Primary. It’s rare for Democrats to vote in the most Conservative choice in a primary like this, and Kim and Murphy are also not considered as stalwart progressives in the Garden state, which neutralises Gottheimer’s moderate appeal.
Gottheimer’s second biggest issue is his dubious financial record. Gottheimer has been dogged with allegations of insider trading, as he is consistently one of the most successful stock traders in Congress, and has made over $18 million since entering congress in 2017. He has also been accused of immoral campaign fundraising strategies, such as raising millions in campaign funds during his 2021 standoff with House Leadership over the Build Back Better legislation.
Overall, I’m neither sold on the chance that he actually runs, or wins the primary if he should run, as a result of his conservative voting record which does nothing but hamper him in a primary of this magnitude. He has consistently irked the Democratic base, and there’s nothing to suggest that he would be a winning candidate as of now.
State Sen. Teresa Ruiz (NJ-28)
State Senate Majority Leader. Teresa Ruiz is another potential candidate for this Senate seat, and likely the only Latina candidate who would have a shot at winning this seat. There is little precedent for state leaders succeeding in running for offices as high as the Senate, so she would have steep hill to climb - and likely wouldn’t have the same name recognition either regionally like Reps. Kim and Gottheimer, or state-wide like First Lady Murphy.
What is in her favour is her ties with the state party political machine due to her work in local politics, and controlling county level politics can be critical to winning primaries in the Garden State, due to the “County line” system mentioned earlier on in this article. The Latina Civic PAC has also lent their tentative support to Ruiz, alongside a handful of other potential Latina candidates, as they are keen for this Senate seat, which is currently held by a Latino, to stay that way. Latino voters also make up around 20% of the primary electorate for Democrats, and if a candidate could pin a vast majority of these voters down then they may well have a shot in a crowded primary.
Perhaps Ruiz may not run, but as of writing I feel she is the strongest Latina/o candidate in the conversation, but if she doesn’t run I would expect other strong candidates such as Judge Esther Salas to run instead. Any Latina candidate in this race would likely have a chunk of the electorate pinned down, so it’s possible to rule Ruiz out at this stage, but her lack of name recognition and profile will likely let her down in the end.
Rep. Rob Menendez Jr. (NJ-08)
I have to say, I’m not convinced that this will happen, but wouldn’t it be funny?
Rep. Rob Menendez Jr., the son of the now indicted Senator also happens to be a member of the House, and the only member of New Jersey’s congressional delegation not to call for his father’s resignation.
Unfortunately, as of now, it doesn’t look like the young Menendez will seek to continue his father’s work in the Senate, as he has already announced his intentions to run for re-election to the house in 2024, but a boy can still dream.
Wrapping Up
To close this article out, I’m going to summarise what I think will happen in New Jersey’s next Senate race, and everyone can mock me for how wrong this is come next June for the primary and November for the General. I think there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that Menendez resigns from the Senate. Ultimately, it’s unlikely that he would be expelled, and he has weathered previous indictments before. But this fact is unimportant, as an indicted Menendez would still almost certainly not seek another term in 2024, and if he did, his polling would be so poor that the race may as well be wide open. I suspect that Rep. Kim will be the early leader in the race, he has this advantage by being the first in the ring, but the entry of perhaps another member of Congress or First Lady Murphy will shake things up. I would expect this to be either a three or four horse race, and that either Kim or Murphy will prevail.
I may be naïve to say this, but with Menendez off the ballot, I think that New Jersey is safe for the eventual Democratic Nominee when it comes to the General Election, so won’t put much thought into this unless the race develops in a strange way.
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If we can work to put Trump in prison for much of the same kind of things, then Menendez doesn't deserve a seat in Congress, and should likely face some of the same circumstances. Democrats should be kicking him to the curb...