Reviewing the 2023 Gubernatorial Elections
At the Races
Introduction
The year of our Lord 2023 is typically a political off year in both the United States and large parts of the Western world, but this doesn’t mean that there aren’t exceptions to this rule. Three states in the USA hold their elections in the year preceding presidential elections. These states are Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi - three now deeply Republican states - yet two of whom are currently governed by Democrats. This article will break down each race and discuss the odds each candidate has of winning, and whether or not there may be upsets come November time.
In 2019, Louisiana and Kentucky elected Democrats John Bel Edwards and Andy Beshear respectively to the Governor’s mansions of their states, this can be seen as either a continuation of 2018’s “blue wave,” or an outstanding display of how toxic the Republican brand was come November 2019. JBE of Louisiana was the incumbent governor, who had strong favourables coming into the cycle, while Andy Beshear was the son of beloved former governor Steve Beshear. Both of these democrats were incredible candidates and this secured their success in deeply red and hostile states for democrats.
2023 will not be the same. JBE is term limited and all polling indicates that a Republican will surely reclaim the Governor’s Mansion. Andy Beshear is favoured to win re-election against current Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron. And there may be an upset in the historically conservative, and deeply racially polarised, state of Mississippi where Public Service Commissioner, and second cousin of Elvis Presley, Brandon Presley, is running a strong campaign against the deeply divisive and unpopular Peter Griffin lookalike, incumbent Governor Tate Reeves.
With this foreword complete, it’s time to go to the races.
Kentucky (Lean D)
Andy Beshear’s first election in 2019 was hardly a blowout, but it was still monumental. Beshear ousted the greatly unpopular Matt Bevin by less than 5,000 votes in an election where over 1.4 million votes were cast. A slim margin, but when given the partisanship of Kentucky, which would go on to vote for Donald Trump by around 26 points one year later, it was truly a monumental feat that Beshear overcame the partisan nature of his state.
And there is no reason to assume that this won’t carry forward in 2023. Cameron isn’t a particularly strong candidate, although he was the strongest Republican in the field, but Beshear has done little to perturb the voters of Kentucky. Ultimately, his family’s name legacy and his popularity as Governor will likely see him through to a second term
But what do the numbers say?
Current polling has Beshear ahead by around 5.5% - outside of the expected margin of error and internal polling by Cameron and the Republican Leadership Committee hasn’t found their candidate in the lead. Furthermore, according to Morning Consult, Beshear’s approvals continue to rise as the election approaches. Governor Beshear currently sits at net +32% favourability including breaking even with Republican voters. An even more impressive feat given that Beshear has rarely broken ranks with Democrats and has found himself often at odds with the Republican legislature. This fact differs him from some other contemporary Democratic Governors of red states who have typically been seen as conservative or Blue Dog Democrats.
With this in mind it seems likely that Beshear will overcome the partisanship of his state and is headed to a second term in the Governor’s Mansion
Louisiana (Likely R)
Louisiana is a difficult state to poll and to judge by its polling due to the use of the Jungle Primary. Instead of Democratic and Republican primaries, every candidate for office is on the same ballot in a jungle primary, and each voter may only vote once. If no candidate clears 50% then there will be a runoff election between the top two candidates, but should one candidate get a majority of the vote then they will be declared the winner. As of now, this system heavily favours Republicans as almost any Republican could beat any Democrat (not named Jon Bel Edwards), meaning that there is no downside to running several high quality Republican candidates as there is no risk of throwing the election to the Democrats.
Regarding incumbent Governor Jon Bel Edwards, he is an anomaly in Democratic politics. He is ardently pro-life, siding with the Republican legislature on all issues of abortion, and has a southern charm that separates him from many of his other challengers. JBE is one in a million for Democrats and they would need a truly spectacular candidate if they hoped to retain this Governor’s Mansion.
For the sake of this article, I will be looking at jungle primary and run off polling (although only one such poll exists) between Jeff Landry and Shawn Wilson as they are, for all intents and purposes, the only noteworthy Republican and Democratic candidates for Governor. They are, respectively, the incumbent Attorney General and former secretary of Transport and Development from the Pelican State. Some other noteworthy candidates are in the race, such as the Majority Leader of the Louisiana Senate, Sharon Hewitt and Stephen Waguespack, who is endorsed by LA–6 Rep. Garret Graves. However, neither of these candidates have statistically significant polling numbers, so the race is realistically between Landry and Wilson.
With that in mind, the numbers
Polling suggests that, despite Democrats currently holding the Governor’s mansion, they are hardly favoured to retain it. It is of note that these polls have large numbers of undecideds, however this is likely not particularly significant as we are still three months out from the election and there hasn’t been a public poll in over a month now. So while Landry only leads by around eight points currently, this doesn’t really mean that Democrats have a good chance of retaining the Governor’s mansion come November. Especially given that Wilson isn’t known in the state as a conservative Democrat the way that JBE is, suggesting that his crossover support will likely not be enough to combat the overwhelmingly Republican lean of the Pelican State. There is a universe, akin to the Alabama Special Election of 2017 when Doug Jones bested Roy Moore, where Landry finds himself in hot water and Wilson can eek a win out, but the odds of a democrat breaking 50% in Louisiana is close to zero, so it seems incredibly likely that Democrats will lose this race come November.
Mississippi (Likely R)
The final race of the 2023 cycle is the Mississippi Gubernatorial election, where incumbent Tate Reeves takes on Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley. In an ordinary year this wouldn’t be an election of any interest due to Mississippi’s racially polarised and Republican lean, but 2023 is hardly a normal election year. Governor Reeves put in an incredibly mediocre performance in 2019, where he beat Attorney General Jim Hood by just 5 points, a poor performance given that Republican Phil Bryant held that seat by 30 points in 2015, and that in 2020, Mississippi would back Donald Trump by 16 points. Furthermore, recent Senate elections in the Magnolia State from 2018 and 2020 have seen Democrats come within 10 points of victory, suggesting that there is a narrow path for a Democratic victory this November.
But that isn’t to say this is likely, on paper Mississippi is a Republican state, but Governor Reeves has had his fair share of controversies during his first term as Governor. These controversies include, but are not limited to: blocking water system repairs in Jackson, which led to a state of emergency being declared, being implicated in a massive welfare scam and a racist history during his frat days. All this combined has led to him being the third most unpopular Governor in the country. By contrast, Brandon Presley doesn’t have any negative marks against his name, bar of course the (D) in brackets on Mississippi’s ballots come November. He has a niche celebrity status due to his familial links with Elvis Presley, and his current Public Service Commission seat is a deeply Republican seat (it voted for Trump by 23 points in 2020), but one which he continues to win with strong margins. He is one of the last of a dying breed of conservative Democrats in the south, describing himself as pro-life and instead focusing on real issues, such as expanding broadband connection to win re-election. The unpopularity of Reeves contrasted with the likeability competence, and strong previous electoral showings of Presley may create a perfect storm for Democrats.
And now, the numbers.
The polling numbers are a concern for both Presley and Reeves, with Reeves performing significantly worse than an incumbent from Mississippi should but with Presley being unable to poll ahead of his rival since January. As with the other races in this article, polling should be taken with a slight grain of salt as there are still three months until the election, and there have only been a half a dozen polls conducted of this race. Nonetheless, the polling reflects the earlier tone of this article that there is a window for Presley and the Democrats to win this race, but it is slim and would require a sustained period of attacks against Governor Reeves, including to tie him to the many scandals he has been associated with while in office. This may prove difficult for Presley, as he is at a severe fundraising disadvantage, and national Democrats haven’t paid a great deal of attention to the off year election in the deep South. As a result of this, Reeves is favoured but his win isn’t a certainty.
In Summary
These three off year elections will be an interesting test of Democrat performance in areas which are typically hostile to their messaging.
Through political skill, and a handy surname, Andy Beshear will likely win re-election in Kentucky, but the picture is less rosy in the two Southern states that Democrats will be contesting. Unless Jeff Landry is the victim of some sort of heinous controversy, he appears to be in good standing to flip Louisiana from the Democrats in November, and it isn’t clear when next an opportunity will arise for Democrats to regain this seat. In Mississippi, Governor Reeves will be pushing the limit of how many controversies an incumbent can have and still win re-election. He is hardly a popular incumbent, but the (R) next to his name will serve in good stead to win re-election. But surprises happen, the 2022 election showed us as such in gruesome detail, and it is wrong to suggest that any of these races are set in stone before voting has even begun. Democrats have, to their best ability, nominated the strongest candidates in these races, and Republicans have tried their best, even if they’re coming from a more mediocre pool.
Should any upsets come this November there will be plenty of time spent on autopsying each race, and if Democrats overperform it will suggest that the “Dobbs effect,” is still in full swing, and this should energise Democrats across the country who believe that no race is unwinnable.
Thank you for reading, and please post any thoughts you might have in the comments below.