How Low Can DeSantis Go?
At the Races for Second Place
Setting the Scene
The conventional wisdom coming into 2024 was that the Republican primary would be a two horse race between DeSantis and Trump, with maybe Nikki Haley jumping in the ring too but, as of writing, Trump is nearly 40 points clear of his closest rival and that gap doesn’t seem to be closing. The real race in 2024 now is for second place, and this article will rank in descending order who is most likely to win the Runner-Up Primary, after a quick look at the polling in Iowa and New Hampshire
The Republican primary for 2024 was promised to be one for the ages, a close primary with a former President running against a rising star in the form of Governor Ron DeSantis. Polls indicated a close race, with DeSantis even taking the lead in polling around the end of 2022 - all before he had even announced his candidacy. The world was Ron’s oyster. It was his for the taking. But his fates would change over the coming months as he ran a frankly bizarre and alienating campaign. From campaign ads using Nazi iconography, to his simply dismal attempts at retail politicking, there is little to suggest that this is a winning campaign, especially as DeSantis drifts into the low double digits in his polling average. The bottom line is that, unless there is a serious shift in his fates, DeSantis is going to lose, and he is going to lose badly. So the question is, does DeSantis risk losing second place, and who is most likely to win the runner-up primary?
Iowa
Due to it’s status as the first in the nation caucus, the Iowa caucus is an important staging ground for all primary challengers, even though it has little correlation with picking the winner of the overall primary. Nonetheless most of the major candidates have vested a great deal of resources into the small Midwestern State, with DeSantis being no stranger to this. As a reward for his campaigning in the State he has maintained a strong second place showing in Iowa, but recent polling suggests that his lead is eroding.
This graph shows the polling averages in Iowa since March 2023 with Trump holding a strong lead since around June, and DeSantis taking up second place, but on a clear downward trajectory. Not a great look for the Governor of Florida but it could be worse, and it looks like it’s becoming so.
When you look at the polls conducted after Tim Scott’s campaign announcement they show one thing. DeSantis is in danger of coming third. Since the end of May, the Governor’s polling has eroded from around 28% down to 16%, with Scott now taking just over 10% of the vote. Scott is on the up and DeSantis is very clearly on the down. It is no longer fair to call the primaries a two horse race and it is also incorrect to say that DeSantis can claim the mantle of Trump’s main opponent should his polls keep shifting in this direction.
New Hampshire
If Iowa is a proving grounds for prospective primary victors, then you can take that status and double it for New Hampshire. Due to the caucus system eluding many casual voters in the US, it can be argued that New Hampshire is more important than Iowa, due to it’s claim to fame as the “First in the Nation Primary” instead of caucus. New Hampshire is a state with an infamous libertarian streak, and a New England appetite for its moderate Republican governor who continues to blow Democratic opponents out of the water, despite the State’s blue tint. As a result, the Granite State is fertile ground for “maverick” or unconventional Republicans hoping to prove a name for themselves in their party’s primary - Ron Paul came second here in the 2012 GOP Primary! It also helps that the winner of the Granite State’s GOP primary has gone on to become the party nominee in over 80% of elections from the last century. Simply put, if you win New Hampshire you may well win the whole thing.
As mentioned at the top article, I don’t feel that it’s worth considering that Trump could lose the primary, so the question is who will come second, and the polling suggests that the odious nature of DeSantis and his campaign may cost him even second place in the Granite State. A pretty abysmal showing for a man who staked himself as the future of the Republican Party.
What this graph reflects is the downward spiral the DeSantis campaign is in the midst of, and it doesn’t seem to show any sign of stopping. In under 6 months, the Florida Governor has over halved his share of the vote in polls, with the most recent Emerson College poll having DeSantis at 8% of the vote, putting him 1% behind Chris Christie. An utterly humiliating result should it be replicated in the Primary. What makes this result even worse is that there’s no sign that DeSantis will be able to shore up his support in these early primary states, and this lack of momentum will hardly serve to benefit him for the rest of the primary season through to Super Tuesday and beyond.
All this is to say that DeSantis is not the presumptive second place candidate and that I will wager that he loses out on second - or maybe even third - to another contender.
No.1 Tim Scott
Senator Tim Scott is an important figure in Republican Politics. He is the only African-American, Republican Senator and he is a devout conservative and Christian, both qualities which should help him excel in this crowded Republican field - he also gave the GOP’s response to Biden’s first SOTU speech. Scott was also a 30 year old virgin, but that feels less impactful on the race than his beliefs and tenure in the US Senate. However he currently, has a relatively low profile, with only 60% of Republican voters having an opinion on him, although those who know of him tend to like him. Furthermore, according to FiveThirtyEight’s national primary tracker, Scott is only pulling in around 3% of the vote currently, so what evidence is there to suggest that he will best DeSantis and come second in the Primary?
For one, Senator Scott has over $20 million cash on hand (largely from his senate war chest), and from nearly $6 million raised in the first quarter of his campaign. This positions him as one of the candidates with the most cash to spend in this brutal primary. The only candidate he trails in this metric is Donald Trump and he is essentially tied with DeSantis. This amount of cash is allowing him to place massive ad buys across the country, and especially in early primary states - including the largest ad buy from a presidential candidate so far in the 2024 cycle. The aptly named Trust In Mission or TIM super PAC has also pledged $40 million in ad buys for the South Carolina Senator through to January, on top of another $8 million ad buy from Scott announced recently. The airwaves are Scott’s domain and this is already starting to pay off in some states in his crosshairs, such as Iowa, where his polling has doubled from 5% at the start of his campaign to around 10-11% today. This obviously isn’t an astronomical increase, but in a primary as crowded as this, it is hardly something to scoff at. Aside from polling, he also does seem to be making a serious dent on the ground in Iowa. If polling wasn’t enough, he drew one of the largest crowds at the infamous Iowa State fair, which can be seen as a good bellwether for candidate support in general.
These early primary states are where Scott may prevail, and where he has devoted a lot of time and effort. This article has devoted a great deal of time to Iowa and New Hampshire, but it is also worth taking a look at South Carolina. The home state of both former Ambassador Haley and Senator Scott is the fourth contest that Republicans will have to face on their way to winning the primary. Haley had banked on a strong showing in the Palmetto State to give her campaign momentum, and Scott is presumably doing the same, although polling indicates that he is doing a far better job at it. Before Scott jumped in the race, Haley was able to garner around 20% of the vote in some polls, but has now slipped to around half that, with Scott taking 10-13% of the vote on average. This isn’t enough to make a significant dent in the overall results in South Carolina, but it puts him within spitting distance of DeSantis and, should he ramp up his campaign in his home state, it may be enough to displace DeSantis from second.
Out of the candidates for the runner-up primary, Scott dominates them when it comes to political prowess, and spending capabilities. Scott also happens to be adept at retail politicking, especially compared to the rest of the field who seem pretty inept in the face of voters. His campaign is one of a handful that is trending upwards and with some of his opponents in free fall, and others who simply can’t get off the ground, this has the potential to put him firmly in the driving seat of the “Not Trump” candidates. As a result of this, it seems fair that Scott may well be able clear the hurdle of DeSantis and then sweep his other, weaker opponents to the side. If he can achieve this then he has a clear shot at winning the runner-up primary and taking a sizeable chunk of the primary vote with him. I doubt that this will be enough to best Trump, but if Republicans are looking for a charismatic, adept politico with a “common-sense message” then they should look no further than Senator Scott.
No. 2 Vivek Ramaswamy
Ohio resident, son of immigrants, and entrepreneur are some of the words used to describe Vivek Ramaswamy. Political anomaly is another. At just 38 years of age he is one of the youngest candidates to ever run for President, clearing the boundary to become president by just three years. Ramaswamy’s rise to the national spotlight is nothing short of a miracle and his continued rise in the polls should be raising alarms across Washington and especially in the DeSantis camp. Gamblers aren’t always the best indicator of a candidate’s chance at winning their election but, for what it’s worth, betting markets also now give Ramaswamy better odds of winning the nomination than DeSantis. He is the founder of a biotech company called Roivant Sciences, a firm which has a tumultuous history on the market but one which Ramaswamy has made hundreds of millions of dollars from. In many ways, Ramaswamy’s story is the American dream, and perhaps that explains his new found luck in the race to become the GOP’s nominee.
Ramaswamy has come out of nowhere to potentially seize second place in primary polling from Ron DeSantis. A number of polls recently have put the millionaire businessman above the Florida governor, the most shocking of these being a RMG Research poll which puts Ramaswamy five points(!) clear of DeSantis nationally. FiveThirtyEight’s national polling has also mirrored this trend and has Ramaswamy at an average of 7.5% at time of writing, which is over double where he was at the beginning of July. This comes at a time where over 30% of voters have never even heard of the candidate, although those who have heard enough of the guy to have an opinion of him love him. Morning Consult placed him at 55% approval with only 13% of Republican primary voters disapproving of him. On net, this places Vivek as the third most popular candidate with Republican voters and just 1% behind DeSantis’ approval, but with so many voters still not having an opinion on the young entrepreneur, there is still room for him to gain even more favourability.
Financially, the Ramaswamy campaign isn’t doing too bad for itself either - even if it is largely self funded. In July 2023, his campaign reported a funding haul of $7.7 million for the quarter, although $5 million of this was donated by Ramaswamy himself. This puts Ramaswamy in the less than desirable camps of candidates like Perry Johnson or Doug Burgum who have had little to write home about in donations but have bankrolled their own campaigns. This haul has placed Ramaswamy behind only Trump and DeSantis for the quarter and “Vivek’s Kitchen Cabinet,” where fundraisers receive a 10% commission of any donations made as a result of their work, may be just novel enough to help him outraise the rest of the field. The Ramaswamy campaign has also been incredibly frugal with ad buys, this is in large part due to the candidate’s willingness to do almost any news show, interview or podcast that will have him on. Instead of surrogates or TV ads, Ramaswamy is attempting to talk to voters himself, and yet he still has a large war chest - and personal wealth - to subsidise his campaign should it be necessary.
The key issue for Ramaswamy however is that it’s unclear who his key constituency is. Crosstabs from polls don’t show Ramaswamy having particular sway with any certain demographics - bar under 45s, and he doesn’t have a constituency locked down that will ensure that he has a high floor for his campaign. Instead, he has uniform appeal with Republican voters which could be a double edged blade. It isn’t enough for Ramaswamy to get 10% of the primary in all 50 states because the Republican primaries are largely winner-take-all situations, with some pity delegates for candidates with strong showings. Until Ramaswamy can lock down an appeal in specific states or with specific demographics, it is unclear that he can turn his good polling numbers into winning delegates.
Nonetheless, all of this should scare any Republican hopefuls into taking Ramaswamy seriously. He has a strong war chest, charisma, a desire to be in the limelight and increasingly strong polling numbers. Being in high single digits in August isn’t the ticket to winning the nomination, but it is certainly an aid in putting in a strong performance and coming in second. This list has ranked him below Scott due to Scott’s proven record on both conservative policy and strong electoral showings. As of now, Vivek is too much of an unknown quantity to place him above Scott, but a good debate performance in Wisconsin and increasingly good polling numbers may move him above both Scott and DeSantis in our rankings.
No.3 Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis, otherwise known as “Rob DeSanctimonious, Meatball Ron, Ron DeSaster, Tiny D” and the Governor of Florida should be a shoo in to come at least second in the GOP primary, but I’m not convinced that this will happen. From as late as February 2023, DeSantis was within spitting distance of Trump in primary polling. He was down from the dizzying heights of November 2022 where he overtook the former President in polling and won re-election by over twenty points against former Governor Charlie Crist. DeSantis, however, would do nothing to capitalise on this momentum. He waited until May 2023 to announce his campaign, at which point he was already 35 points behind Trump in polling averages. He had a slight polling bump to come within 30 points of the former President, but since then has only slumped and is now a polling a dismal 15% of the primary vote. What went so very wrong for the Governor?
DeSantis had a red carpet laid out for him. In 2018 he held the Governor’s mansion for Republicans, and by 2022 he had done the unthinkable and turned a former swing state into a hotbed of conservatism. However, despite this positive attention and glad ragging from the Governor, cracks in his ability were evident and had started to form long before DeSantis would announce his run for President.
From his time in Congress, many colleagues have since said that he was largely ineffective, aloof and a complete loner. Hardly credentials that make for a good President. In a debate from the run up to the 2022 midterms, DeSantis awkwardly dodged a straightforward question from Charlie Crist regarding whether or not he will serve a full four year term as Governor should he win re-election. For observers on both sides this should have served as evidence that DeSantis’ chances in a GOP primary were massively overblown, but the Governor’s ego got the best of him and he waited too long to seize his moment. The several months between DeSantis being seen as a candidate for President and actually announcing a campaign were hard to watch. He stumbled through press briefings making awkward, exaggerated expressions and had to fight with the Florida legislature to change the law meaning he didn’t have to resign as Governor before running for president. Then, in April, half of Florida’s congressional Republicans endorsed Trump, with some citing that they hadn’t even heard from DeSantis because he had assumed they would endorse him without any discussion or struggle. All this has led to a fall from grace that could’ve been foreseen by Helen Keller, but are there any silver linings?
One think DeSantis has going for him kind of is finances. With $20 million on hand, this gives the Governor one of the largest war chests as the election approaches, but there are some glaring signs of weakness with this figure. More than a third of his donations came within the first 10 days of his campaign, and a good chunk of his fund was transferred from the “Draft DeSantis 2024 PAC”. The Governor is also shored up by the support of a $100 million super PAC which supported his runs in Florida. However, there has been little impact from his spending, and he lacks the charisma required for retail politicking. Over the last six months, the Never Back Down PAC has spent $15.5 million on ads for DeSantis, trailing Trump by $5 million. While $15 million is significant, this advertising blitz has had no notable impact on the polls and raises concerns that despite his war chest. DeSantis may have, for a lack of a better expression, fumbled the bag and perhaps no amount of advertising can save him. To rub salt further into his wounds, DeSantis recently fired a third of his campaign team, whether this was for financial or strategical reasons is unclear but it is troubling that he is having to fire staffers this early into the election cycle.
Ultimately, the DeSantis campaign is in very sorry shape, and it’s not clear that anything can be done to reverse the damage which Ron himself has caused. There is a great deal to be said about DeSantis, and a great source on this is ettingermentum.news and his three part series on DeSantis and his lack of political aptitude. Put simply, DeSantis tried to capture anti-Trump sentiment and pair it with Trump’s policies, but GOP voter’s don’t want Trumpism without Donald Trump, they want Trump. DeSantis still maintains solid approval ratings with Republican voters but there is nothing he can offer that Trump can’t. Unless he changes the mood of his campaign, it seems likely that the DeSantis campaign is doomed to fail, and the only question left is how far it can fall. This article believes that he could fall as low as fourth place in overall vote share when the shouting is over, as the current picture of the primary is all bar rosy for the Florida Governor.
Wrapping Up
This article reflects the view that either Tim Scott or Vivek Ramaswamy will end up winning the runner-up primary and coming second to Donald Trump, and that if anyone has a chance at dethroning the former President then it will be the Senator from South Carolina. On the other hand, Ron DeSantis, the former GOP heartthrob and contender to win the whole thing is on his way to falling into irrelevancy. Polling numbers straying into single digits and a continually deflated campaign mean that the perpetually insincere and uncharismatic Governor has nothing to lean on and there is no reason for his polling slide to stop. There are, of course, many other candidates still running, and one of them may have a surge in support but none of them have the credential of the three candidates mentioned above and would have to show a change in their fortunes to feature on this list. At the end of the day, there are still over four months until the first votes in the GOP primary are cast, and this article is a snapshot in time, working off of readily available sources.
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