Trump's 2024 VP Shortlist
At the Races for Veep
Being Donald Trump’s Vice President is far from the best job in the world, just ask Mike Pence how he feels about it. Despite this, there are a lot of high level Republicans seeking this promotion, but who’s likely to make the cut?
There has been a great deal of speculation over who the 45th President will pick as his running mate in the likely instance that he wins the Republican nomination for the 2024 election, and much of it has honed in on characteristics it was assumed that Donald Trump would want on his ticket. Namely these are; being a woman, having a good profile, being in almost lockstep with the former President on most issues and loyalty, with the last being the most important. This led to candidates such as Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Nikki Haley, Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) and even former Democrat Rep. Tulsi Gabbard making the top of the list of potential VP candidates. But, a Newsmax interview on the day of his arrest in Fulton County has shed light on who former President Trump is considering as he proposed three candidates to be his VP; Gov. Kristi Noem, Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) and Vivek Ramaswamy.
This article will break down the pros and cons of each candidate, their likelihood of being selected and also tackle whether or not this shortlist is a red herring and other candidates are secretly being considered.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek Ramaswamy is becoming a recurring character in the petestarkcore Substack, and this is not without reason. My recent article about the 2024 GOP Runner-Up primary covered the Ohioan entrepreneur and his extraordinary rise in the polls to suggest that he could best DeSantis, finishing second to Trump overall. This seems to have been prophetic as, at the time of writing, Ramaswamy is at 10% in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, just six points behind the Florida Governor.
This new traction to the outsider’s campaign, strong debate performance and constant media coverage has helped him catch the eye of none other than former President Trump. After the first Republican Primary debate Trump posted praise for the Ohioan on his social media platform, Truth Social, thanking him for “a thing called TRUTH” when he stated that Trump was the best president of the 21st Century. Since then, Trump has now been on Newsmax with a great deal of Praise for Ramaswamy, quoting the candidate himself regarding how Vivek is pronounced (it’s like cake for the uninitiated) and going on to say that the candidate had done “very well” at the debate.
As I see it, Trump has his eye on Ramaswamy not only as a potential running mate but also as a spiritual successor of the MAGA movement. Pundits have acknowledged how much of Ramaswamy’s rhetoric is almost a double of the Trump 2016 platform, and when it came to questions regarding support and loyalty to the former President, Vivek has answered them perfectly in the eyes of the MAGA crowd. This has lifted his polling numbers, favourability, and likeability in the eyes of a majority of Republican voters. For Trump die-hards he is almost certainly their second choice.
But does this make him a shoo in for the vice presidency? The answer is no. There is a real chance that Biotech CEO’s rise in the polls is just a moment in time, and we will look back on his surge with utter bemusement, a common trend in GOP primaries where candidates often soar into the lead for a week or two at a time only to tumble back to the bottom of the pile. Should his surge continue and possibly threaten first place then Ramaswamy is also much less likely to cede and run for the second highest office in the country as attacks between the two men would surely ramp up, and Ramaswamy’s loyalty would be brought into question. That is a question for the future, but in the now what can we say about his chances?
As of writing, Ramaswamy is playing political chess, dropping hints that he would be interested in being Vice President one day, then going on TMZ to rule it out the next. No candidate for President will openly admit that they’re secretly running for the second job, it would stunt their campaign, so we shouldn’t read too much into this yet. Trump’s litmus test of loyalty is one that Ramaswamy would surely pass, he has a national profile now thanks to his rise in the polls and debate appearance. Critically however, he isn’t a woman and his home state of Ohio should be in the GOP column in 2024, so he wouldn’t provide any help to the ticket in this aspect - although neither would the other candidates on the shortlist. Ramaswamy has been engulfed by Trumpworld and he is red meat to Trump supporters, saying everything they say and agree with in the most public, occasionally embarrassing, ways to let them know that he is their guy. Some aspects of the Ohioan may detract from his appeal however, such as his insistence that he believes in “One God,” although that would not be the Christian God due to his Hindu faith. There is also his lack of experience, the same issue Trump had in 2016 but remedied by bringing former VP Mike Pence onto the ticket as an evangelical with experience in federal and state-level politics.
As of right now, there are few draws to Ramaswamy aside from his young, loyalty and positive image within Trumpworld. It would be a major risk to pick him as a running mate and his upsides are counteracted by his lack of political experience, potential skeletons and showmanship, which could possibly overshadow an aging Donald Trump. All in all, it seems plausible that Ramaswamy will be selected as Trump’s running mate, and a Trump/Ramaswamy ticket should not be ruled out just yet.
Gov. Henry McMaster
Governor Henry McMaster has a long history in Republican politics, yet few know his name. Recommended by none other than Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-SC) in 1980, McMaster was the first nomination for a US Attorney by Ronald Reagan just thirty days after his inauguration. Having massively politicised the office to go after cannabis dealers and press releases, McMaster left the office in 1985 and began doing something he gained a reputation for: losing state-wide elections. In 1986 and 1990 he lost bids for Senate and Lieutenant Governor before falling upwards and landing an almost decade long stint as chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party. For all intents and purposes he was incredibly effective in this capacity, flipping the Governorship and several state-wide offices during his tenure, and winning the party a trifecta of the State House, Senate and Governorship in 2000. This led to McMaster being elected Attorney General of the Palmetto State from 2002-2010, losing another election for Governor in 2010 to Nikki Haley and finally becoming Governor in 2017 when Haley Resigned to become Trump’s ambassador to the U.N.
McMaster’s winding road to the Governorship has largely gone under the national radar, but not under former President Trump’s. In 2018 he stumped a number of times for McMaster likely as a thanks for the Governor being the first elected official to endorse him in 2016, and for giving the opening speech at the Republican National Convention in the same year. Trump’s endorsement would be pivotal to the Governor’s re-election in 2018 as he was forced into a runoff against a little known rival, United States Marine John Warren, who McMaster only defeated by six points when all was said and done. Anecdotally, it has also been said that this runoff was one of the most important races for the former President in the 2018 cycle.
This brings us to 2024, a year where South Carolinians are rushing to run for the GOP nomination over Donald Trump. McMaster has stood by his guns and endorsed the former President instead of either of the candidates from his home state, which is sure to earn him some loyalty points. Pretty much none of the conversation up until this point had considered McMaster as Trump’s pick for a running mate, until he said it himself in the Newsmax interview, so what does McMaster have that the other candidates don’t?
In many ways, McMaster is reminiscent of Trump’s former running mate, Mike Pence. A staunch, 80s/90s conservative with little national profile who governs a Republican leaning state, and has a great deal of support from religious, white voters. In 2016, Trump’s appeal with evangelicals was in question, however 2024 will likely not be the same thanks to the former President shifting far to the right on issues such as abortion and religious freedoms, which are central to winning the religious right vote.
All in all, McMaster is a rather unimpressive candidate, but he is a safe pick. Forty years of public service have revealed any skeletons that the Governor may have, and those which have been found have been inconsequential, including his membership of a discriminatory and segregated golf club. If Trump is looking for an inoffensive choice that will neither please nor displease any of his core demographics then McMaster is his likely pick. This would be against the grain of the Trump 2024 campaign to date, which has been full of gimmicks and bucked tradition, but perhaps the showmanship is just that, it is all for show and Trump is serious about winning the 2024 election in conventional fashion. Should that be the case, and there is method behind his campaign’s madness then this feeds into the narrative that McMaster will be Trump’s pick for VP.
Gov. Kristi Noem
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem is a Republican sweetheart who has a well documented relationship with Donald Trump, bordering on friendship. She is yet to endorse him officially as of writing this article, instead skirting the issue but claiming he is the only Republican who could win in 2024 - which one could consider a de facto endorsement. Trump, for his part, has endorsed the Governor in 2018 and 2022, hosting a fundraising from Mar-a-Lago for her in 2021.
As the current Governor of South Dakota, and formerly the sole Congresswoman for the Mount Rushmore State, she has built up a strong repertoire within the Republican Party and with her fellow conservatives - most notably refusing to institute mask mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic and directing pandemic funds to the state’s tourism fund. This has granted her key speech opportunities at the 2021 and 2022 CPACs alongside the 2020 Republican National Convention. Some speculated that she was using this platform to set forth her vision for America and to mount a Presidential run, but it doesn’t appear that 2024 will be her target. This could make her eager to win election to the vice presidency, potentially using the office to springboard a 2028 run should Donald Trump win a belated re-election. But will she be the 45th’s choice to help him become the 47th?
Out of the three contenders allegedly on Trump’s shortlist, Noem looks to be the most likely pick to be his running mate. While a diverse ticket won’t be at the top of most conservative’s checklist, it is provable that women keep skewing more towards the Democrats, creating a major issue for the GOP. This, alongside strong conservative women such as Kellyanne Conway, Gov. Sarah Huckabee-Sanders (R-AR), Candice Owens and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) taking the national spotlight is increasing pressure by conservative women to have a woman on the ticket to help stem the bleeding of young women from the GOP. An issue which will further be compounded by Biden-Harris presenting a diverse ticket with a woman as VP. It may be Trump’s time to smell the roses and consider the advantage of having a woman on his ticket to help stem his party’s short and long term problems with female voters.
Aside from her gender, Noem’s loyalty is also hardly in question, as she has refused to endorse any of the former President’s challengers as of yet, and Trump is set to take to the stage with her at the already sold out Monumental Leaders rally in South Dakota next week. She is liked by Trump, his circle and has gone out of her way to show her loyalty to the former Commander in Chief - including gifting him a replica of Mount Rushmore with Trump as a fifth head on it’s side.
When all is said and done, Kristi Noem is Trump’s best and most likely choice for Vice President - but that doesn’t mean she is guaranteed anything. Right now, she is incredibly popular with Trumpworld and conservatives as a whole, but everyone knows that opinion can flip on a dime. She is in Trump’s good books, and has no notable marks against her in that respect. One possible drawback is her mediocre performance in elections past, nearly losing the deep red state in her 2018 run for governor and underperforming the expected margin for a Republican in 2022, while still winning handily. It is possible that Trump views her electoral mediocrity as a bridge too far but, given her other assets, I find it unlikely that it will be a dealbreaker.
Other Candidates
There are too many potential candidates to run through in detail, instead I will list a handful of candidates from most likely to least likely with a small blurb about their pros and cons below.
Kari Lake
The failed gubernatorial candidate from Arizona is still claiming headlines almost a year after her election loss, crying fraud and more. In the aftermath of this, she has “basically moved into Mar-a-Lago,” although it is also reported that this has soured the former President’s relationship with her. She is not a great candidate, but Trump could still come around to her unless she runs for Senate instead.
Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC)
The once moderate Congresswoman from South Carolina has gone from weighing up voting to impeach Trump, to orbiting more towards his line of thinking among speculation that the former President is eyeing up picking a female Representative as his running mate. Their history is short but messy, with Trump attempting to primary her in 2022, and Mace retaliating, calling him a “grandstanding loser.” But as indictments have come in she has rallied to his corner, and even received thanks for this. It isn’t likely that she is Trump’s running mate, but is one of the stronger candidates if Trump can push their feud aside.
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL)
Florida Representative Byron Donalds is one of few black, conservatives with a platform in America, and may be under consideration as Trump’s running mate. This summer, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna - a trump acolyte - tweeted that Donalds would make an excellent VP, stirring rumours that a ticket of two Donalds is in the works, but not much has been heard since. Donalds could be a strong candidate to help up the GOP’s dismal numbers with black voters, but it will likely amount to nothing.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY)
Stefanik is a top leader within the Republican party, who has gained notoriety from her staunch defence of the former President after being a critic of him previously. With loyalty being a top priority for Trump, Stefanik meets that mark and she is largely uncontroversial, but doesn’t have any particular quirks that make her stand out from the rest of the crowd. There’s a chance she makes it onto the ticket as Trump’s VP, but it’s fairly narrow and she wouldn’t bring a great deal as a running mate.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The odds of this are near-zero, but never rule anything out. The Massachusetts “Democrat”, RFK Jr has a famous name and bizarrely high polling numbers against President Biden. He also has a past and present of far right beliefs and conspiracy theories, earning Trump’s appraisal as a “common-sense guy.” As a Democrat, RFK Jr has denied these rumours and pledged that he would never be Trump’s running mate, but 2024 is shaping up to be wacky as ever - so what’s another surprise?
That’s a Wrap
In conclusion, we have no idea who Trump’s VP pick will be, but if his shortlist is to be believed, then McMaster, Noem and Ramaswamy top that list. Given the options, and Trump’s priorities, my current call is that Governor Noem is the most likely pick to be the 45th President’s running mate in 2024. Anything can change between now and then, but that is the state of the race right now.
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