Feels like several of these races are going to come down to turnout, and TBH I have no idea how that works in off-year elections like this. Progressive turnout seems up a fair bit due to the abortion issue, but inflation is pissing a lot of people off, and while it's cooled somewhat it's still likely to be front of mind. Might boost the red team.
Also, how does the abortion issue affect Miss? Yes, whites usually go hard R in states like that, but the white voter rolls might have wayyy more pissed off white women than is usually the case. Could shift it, though maybe not, honestly don't know
Turnout is generally higher with more educated - typically dem leaning voters in off years which might be why this was a great cycle for dems in 2019. Generally, more informed voters are the only ones who turn out here.
Interesting question about abortion, and I'm not entirely sure how it will go, or if it will even be a factor. AFAIK, neither Reeves nor Presley have made it a staple of their campaigns, and Mississippi's suburbs are generally white, affluent but break hard for Republicans. I suspect abortion will be a factor either way, but I don't know if it would be a more salient issue than say the grocery tax, Medicaid expansion and general "Republican sleeze" which Presley has centred his campaign on.
Pretty good predictions all things considered, Dems had a big night in VIrginia, Kentucky keeps that blue governor's office, and Miss went about as expected.
Yeah I’ve gotta say I’m very pleased with the forecast even if I was rooting for Presley on a personal level. My general margin for if something leans to either party is it I expect them to win by 5 points so Beshear winning by 5 and Reeves by 4.9 currently has made me feel quite smug.
Only sort of miss was expecting the OH ballot initiatives to win by about 20 when they won by 15 but I can live with that.
I think it shows that the situation for Biden is nowhere near as dire as people are saying. While some people might prefer a different Democrat, there's still an appetite for Democratic leadership and representation, and if that's Biden then so be it.
(Especially as the alternative is not some abstraction but the actual Trump in all his... glory.)
Not sure about these takes, so long as a free american can own a hecking chonky automatic firearm the world is safe
Feels like several of these races are going to come down to turnout, and TBH I have no idea how that works in off-year elections like this. Progressive turnout seems up a fair bit due to the abortion issue, but inflation is pissing a lot of people off, and while it's cooled somewhat it's still likely to be front of mind. Might boost the red team.
Also, how does the abortion issue affect Miss? Yes, whites usually go hard R in states like that, but the white voter rolls might have wayyy more pissed off white women than is usually the case. Could shift it, though maybe not, honestly don't know
Turnout is generally higher with more educated - typically dem leaning voters in off years which might be why this was a great cycle for dems in 2019. Generally, more informed voters are the only ones who turn out here.
Interesting question about abortion, and I'm not entirely sure how it will go, or if it will even be a factor. AFAIK, neither Reeves nor Presley have made it a staple of their campaigns, and Mississippi's suburbs are generally white, affluent but break hard for Republicans. I suspect abortion will be a factor either way, but I don't know if it would be a more salient issue than say the grocery tax, Medicaid expansion and general "Republican sleeze" which Presley has centred his campaign on.
Great stuff.
Thank you! Here’s hoping I’m right come tonight
Damn you nailed it.
Pretty good predictions all things considered, Dems had a big night in VIrginia, Kentucky keeps that blue governor's office, and Miss went about as expected.
Yeah I’ve gotta say I’m very pleased with the forecast even if I was rooting for Presley on a personal level. My general margin for if something leans to either party is it I expect them to win by 5 points so Beshear winning by 5 and Reeves by 4.9 currently has made me feel quite smug.
Only sort of miss was expecting the OH ballot initiatives to win by about 20 when they won by 15 but I can live with that.
I think it shows that the situation for Biden is nowhere near as dire as people are saying. While some people might prefer a different Democrat, there's still an appetite for Democratic leadership and representation, and if that's Biden then so be it.
(Especially as the alternative is not some abstraction but the actual Trump in all his... glory.)
👍🏻