The Freedom Caucus has nothing to fear from causing a shutdown. It’s helpful in their primaries and doesn’t hurt them much in the general. So, they force McCarthy to own as much of it as possible until there’s nothing for it but to strike a deal with Jeffries on a CR. When that happens they vacate the chair and keep it empty and run out the clock with vote after vote on Speaker. After McCarthy gives up, they offer it to a succession of candidates on increasingly ridiculous demands and keep reneging. Finally, the big reveal: a clean, but very, very short CR in exchange for one of their own as Speaker.
I actually hadn’t considered that last part. It would track with the dying moments of the speaker vote back in January, although I’m not sold that the Freedom caucus would be able to get the votes to pass a clean CR in this scenario. So many bridges would’ve been burned that I doubt McCarthy and his closest allies would be willing to sign his death warrant but maybe I’m wrong. A very compelling proposition though and I’d be keen to check back after this spending debacle is said and done to see if you’re right.
The Freedom Caucus has nothing to fear from causing a shutdown. It’s helpful in their primaries and doesn’t hurt them much in the general. So, they force McCarthy to own as much of it as possible until there’s nothing for it but to strike a deal with Jeffries on a CR. When that happens they vacate the chair and keep it empty and run out the clock with vote after vote on Speaker. After McCarthy gives up, they offer it to a succession of candidates on increasingly ridiculous demands and keep reneging. Finally, the big reveal: a clean, but very, very short CR in exchange for one of their own as Speaker.
I actually hadn’t considered that last part. It would track with the dying moments of the speaker vote back in January, although I’m not sold that the Freedom caucus would be able to get the votes to pass a clean CR in this scenario. So many bridges would’ve been burned that I doubt McCarthy and his closest allies would be willing to sign his death warrant but maybe I’m wrong. A very compelling proposition though and I’d be keen to check back after this spending debacle is said and done to see if you’re right.
Please get out of my walls
Great article - in depth but still accessible